Real Estate: A gloomy first half of 2024, the second won’t be much better


The first half of 2024 will be gloomy for the real estate market in France. Without any real significant reduction in rates, prices are still too low to revive the market.


Real Estate: The Year 2024 Will Be Gloomy ยฉ stock.adobe.com

The real estate crisis

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If real estate loan brokers increase the number of positive communications to encourage prospective borrowers to submit their applications, the real estate market remains constrained: rates aren’t really falling, and prices aren’t falling either.

The best rate is still positive

Wouldn’t this use the Couรฉ method? Mortgage brokers constantly post about falling interest rates. But the decline shown since the beginning of 2024 has been weak. Moreover, it does not make it possible to unblock this real estate market.

This famous real estate buying power, so beloved by journalists, is certainly developing favorably. This is the first time in 4 years that we have noticed a positive development in French real estate purchasing power but we are still far from the situation in 2021, confirms broker MailerTalks. We attribute this improvement to the decline in rates but also to some downward adjustment in prices. Purchasing power is at the center of concern today. Indeed, the French have lost much real estate purchasing power in recent years; ” If we look at the 4 years between 2021 and 2024, it has lost an average of 18mยฒ in France, so it is very clear that the real estate purchasing power of the French has decreased. Earlier, low rates compensated for rapidly rising prices, then we faced rate hikes without falling prices, and today, rates are falling and prices are adjusting, so the situation is more favorable. ยป adds Maรซl Bernier.

Average Fixed Market Rate (APR) for Real Estate Loans – Data updated as on 03/06/2024
Credit terms Higher rates (15% contribution) Average rate (30% contribution) Low rates (50% contribution)
7 years 4.06% 3.77% 2.99%
10 years 4.26% 3.87% 3.27%
15 years 4.76% 4.07% 3.72%
20 years 5.06% 4.22% 3.92%
25 years 5.76% 4.38% 4.07%
Updated on 03/06/2024

. Insurance rates are included with an average borrower insurance rate of 0.45%. Average market rates (with 30% contribution), calculated on statements from real estate loan brokers. Indicative data only.

Real estate purchasing power in 2024

  • The growth of real estate purchasing power in 2024 is a complex issue and depends on many factors, such as real estate prices, interest rates, inflation and differences in income of potential borrowers.
  • Falling prices: In some regions, especially in big cities, real estate prices have started to fall since the end of 2022. This decline is due to several factors, such as rising interest rates and falling demand.
  • Prices rise in some areas: However, prices continue to rise in other regions, particularly rural areas and medium-sized towns. This increase is due to strong demand and insufficient supply of housing.

Wages increase: Wages increased slightly in 2024, which supported real estate purchasing power for some households.

On average, it is estimated that the purchasing power of real estate in 2024 has decreased by about 10% compared to 2023. However, this reduction varies depending on the region and profile of borrowers.

What about the rest of 2024?

Although rates will not drop drastically by the end of the year, they will stabilize and thus allow many French people to restart their real estate projects. Inflation should be contained. French income will be significantly higher than inflation. It remains to be seen whether the current French political context will not have a greater impact on these predictions. Clearly, nothing should improve in the coming months. On the notaries’ side, the vision is clear, nothing at least before 2025.

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Question, comment?


The decline in mortgage rates remains ridiculously low

real estate

The decline in mortgage rates remains ridiculously low


Falling property prices in France will continue until 2026

real estate

Falling property prices in France will continue until 2026


Real estate crisis: Notary confirms, the current crisis will last at least until 2025

real estate

Real estate crisis: Notary confirms, the current crisis will last at least until 2025


Real estate prices are also now falling in official indices (Inci, Notary).

real estate

Real estate prices are also now falling in official indices (Inci, Notary).

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